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Dinner is served

Barely 10 years old, the market for meal kits is worth USD3.5bn today. The idea of putting together pre-packaged fresh ingredients using a recipe that accompanies them in the box appeals to consumers who value “naturalness” and quality alongside convenience.

Although meal kits are currently favoured by a relatively niche group of high-income and urban Millennials, the segment is expected to grow 17% year-on-year, to reach USD8.9bn in 2025. And that’s before Covid, which has simultaneously boosted the home consumption and e-commerce that drive the meal kit market. The sales performance of meal kit groups such as HelloFresh and Marley Spoon has seen a sharp acceleration in Q2 2020.

For meal kit companies, success is all about customer acquisition and retention. With hefty promotional spending needed in a new and competitive market, each customer costs EUR70-150 to acquire, yet mid-term retention rates are only 10-12% on average. As a consequence, few players have been profitable – at least until Covid, which has now inflated profitability to break-even for many. However, it’s unlikely that this stimulus will endure, and we envisage further exits in a market that has seen plenty of consolidation since 2018. In our view, it’s the inherent challenges of the meal kit market, rather than meal kit launches from giants such as Amazon and incumbent large retailers, that’s been behind the shakeout in meal kit players.

In a market that’s still fragmented, we see two models proving successful: either international expansion driven by sophisticated data collection and analytics; or a regional strategy focused on operational excellence. It’s these approaches that may yet see the global market for meal kits mature beyond its niche and take a lasting place in the global food market.

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olive oil and vinegar

Medical cannabis in Western Europe

In this paper, we explore the reasons behind the growth of cannabis as a therapeutic substance and we explore the dynamics and developments in European medical cannabis, with a particular focus on Germany, Europe’s leading cannabis market.

The global cannabis market is evolving from an illegal and mainly recreational market dominated by drug cartels to a legal medical and recreational market in the hands of public and private companies.

Western Europe boasts some of the world’s fastest-evolving and most significant opportunities in medical cannabis, with countries reassessing their restrictions as public support for legalization grows and commercial and social benefits become apparent.

Existing medical cannabis markets such as Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are expanding their programs whilst new medical markets like the UK, France and Spain are reviewing current legislation. And the seeds of a second wave of growth to allow recreational adult use of cannabis are being planted.

Western Europe is on track to become the world’s largest legal medical cannabis market over the next ten years, projected to be worth EUR15.3bn in 2029, up 60x from EUR250m in 2019. Germany, the leading European medical market, is expected to grow to EUR4.9bn by 2029 from EUR210m in 20191. In this paper, we examine the dynamics and developments in European medical cannabis, with a detailed look at the German market.

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Organic signage at vegetable and fruits produce section of supermarket

Into the mainstream: the evolving organics sector in France

With EUR 8bn of sales, the organic sector is become especially well-established in France as the trend towards ‘naturalness’ in products continues. This new report explores whether generalist retailers may dominate this fast-evolving sector in France.

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2018 in retail: engaging with the connected consumer

At our fourth Consumer, Brands & Retail Conference on 24-25 September 2018, Bryan, Garnier & Co analysts were joined by many companies active in the sector. Three thematic roundtables covered some of the sector’s most pressing issues: the future of the point of sale, millennials activation and the impact of
artificial intelligence.

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Luxury goods e-commerce, back to the future

E-commerce is set to be the fastest growing channel until 2025 with a strong pace of growth – at 20%, within the luxury goods market growing by 4%-5%, and thus generating 43% of the luxury goods market growth. At luxury goods firms, e-commerce looks set to undergo the same transformation that their physical operations saw in the 2000s. This means more ‘retail’ digital business models, with more direct control by brands. In this paper, we examine how this shift might play out and what it means for the luxury industry and groups.

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Lit energy saving lightbulb amongst unlit incandescent bulbs

The next big growth idea

Where will FMCG, healthcare and technology groups find growth now? Our new white paper argues that as we transition to a new world of personalized consumption, it all depends on data-driven innovation and M&A.

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Shopping cart on the screen.

The future of retail is now

Analyzing the fast-evolving retail sector, this new white paper explains why physical stores are in surprisingly good health, ‘experiential’ retail is on the rise and why retailers are turning into technology companies.

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Female Mannequins And Fashion Accessories In Shop Window Showcase Of Store Mall Market.

European Growth Investment Bank Bryan, Garnier & Co unveils ambitious plan for its Consumer and Retail European franchise with key hires

PARIS, LONDON, MUNICH, February 24th, 2017 - Bryan, Garnier & Co strengthens its investment banking capacities in the consumer, brands and distribution sectors with the arrival of Charles Tellier as Managing Director, and Jean Cailliau as Executive Advisor.

Recognized for its leading equity research capacity in the sector with six senior equity analysts covering stocks such as LVMH, Moncler, Luxottica, Pernod Ricard, Nestlé, Inditex as well as YOOX and Zalando, the bank has also developed a significant track-record in the innovation related segments. Ranging from e-commerce, consumer electronics to retail technologies the firm has many historical clients such as Parrot, Inspirational Stores, TagHeuer’s mobile phones licensee Modelabs Manufacture, and Innovative retail chain Lick. In 2016 Bryan Garnier led transactions such as a €100 million private placement for Devialet, the disruptive high-end audio consumer electronics company, a €20 million private placement for e-travel company MisterFly with Ventes Privées and Montefiore, and the acquisition of Look Cycles by Activa Capital.

The massive impact of digitalization in the consumer, brands and distribution sectors is leading to major changes both on the consumer side as well as on the corporate side. The reshuffling of distribution models, the impact of social networks on brand positioning, the contribution of retail and marketing technologies in the performances of the business; all are disruptive for leading global corporations, traditional mid-market companies, as well as emerging players. To better help these companies and their investors to seize the opportunities arising from these changes, Bryan Garnier & Co is enhancing its capacities with the arrival of Charles Tellier as Managing Director, and Jean Cailliau as Executive Advisor.

Charles Tellier joins Bryan, Garnier as Managing Director for the franchise. Prior to joining the firm, Charles worked within Morgan Stanley M&A advisory team and Consumer and Retail coverage team in EMEA between 2005 and 2016.  He contributed to the client coverage of large-cap in the Food and Beverage space, in addition to advising emerging and mid-cap Consumer and Retail companies across Europe. His track record includes in particular the acquisition by Suntory Beverage of Lucozade/ Ribena from GSK, the sale of Jimmy Choo by TowerBrook to Labelux, the refinancing of Telepizza and of Campofrio, the IPO of Thule Group and of Imperial Tobacco’s Logista. Charles holds an MBA from INSEAD. He is also a graduate in Politics from Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po) and in Finance from Paris-Dauphine University.

Jean Cailliau joins as an Executive Advisor and brings 25 years of industry expertise and operational knowledge of mid-cap companies in the sector to the Bryan Garnier franchise. Jean has been a partner in charge of Consumer and Distribution within European private equity firms such as Vendis and Nixen after spending 17 years as an Executive within LVMH Group in various operational managing positions, including from 2001 to 2007 where he was Founding Partner of L Capital. Jean has been leading investments and holding board positions in a number of companies including Devialet, Gant, Buffalo Grill, Micromania, Joseph, amongst others. Jean holds an MBA from INSEAD, and an Engineering degree in Agronomics from ENSA. 

Greg Revenu, Managing Partner, Bryan Garnier comments: “Charles and Jean bring to Bryan Garnier an extensive network of relationships within the industry and the investment community, and a wealth of transaction experience covering M&A, direct investments, fundraising as well as equity capital markets. Combined with our platform’s unique expertise in corporate finance advisory to fast-growth industries and its strong equity research coverage on the sectors, Bryan Garnier is now ambitiously strengthening its capabilities to serve clients from the increasingly innovative consumer, brands and distribution industries.”

About Bryan, Garnier & Co (www.bryangarnier.com)

Bryan, Garnier & Co is a European, full service growth-focused independent investment banking partnership founded in 1996. The firm provides equity research, sales and trading, private and public capital raising as well as M&A services to growth companies and their investors. It focuses on key growth sectors of the economy including Technology, Media, Telecoms, Healthcare, Smart Industries, Specialty Retail and Business Services. Bryan, Garnier & Co Ltd is a fully registered broker dealer authorized by the FCA in Europe and the FINRA in the U.S. Bryan, Garnier & Co is headquartered in London, with additional offices in Paris, Munich, Geneva, New York and New Delhi. The firm is a member of the London Stock Exchange and Euronext.