Actelion: FV upgrade ahead of FDA's decision on Opsumit
BUY, Fair Value CHF73 vs. CHF67 (+15%)
After a surprising share price drop yesterday, we are reiterating our BUY rating on Actelion ahead of the expected approval of Opsumit by next Monday. Despite unknowns about label and pricing that could impact the ramp-up of the drug, we feel reasonably confident when considering the overall data package. However beyond small adjustments to our numbers following Q3 results and the new number of shares retained for calculation, we are opportunistically including Ceptaris in our model for the first time, thereby adding CHF2/share to our FV. Although we do not underestimate execution risks related to Opsumit (label, price, penetration rate, impact on Tracleer …), we believe that the exciting and eventful times ahead should boost the share price further. Hence our BUY rating with a new FV.
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