Actelion: GRIPHON phase III allowed to go to its end
BUY, Fair Value CHF65 vs. CHF59 (+13%)
Actelion reported this morning that the Data Monitoring Committee of the GRIPHON phase III study which evaluates efficacy and safety of selexipag in PAH had recommended that the trial continue with no change in study design or protocol. This statement was based on an interim analysis of two-thirds of the required events to assess the primary endpoint, i.e. a benefit in morbidity-mortality. The study is expected to report final results mid-2014. If positive, selexipag would become the first orally-available prostacyclin selective IP receptor agonist with a target market segment of USD1bn. Should it capture half of this market while not expanding it (although it should), this would represent an incremental CHF12 per share for Actelion. As selexipag in our view now carries an even greater chance of success, we do consider it is now unfair to exclude it from our revenue model. As a consequence, we are introducing the compound with a 50% chance of success, thus a FV of CHF65.
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