Bryan Garnier : Grifols - Don't forget Alzheimer's

 (Buy, FV EUR31 vs. 29.5)

News published on March Wednesday 20, 2013
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Along with liraglutide in obesity (Novo Nordisk), the results of Baxter's phase III trial in Alzheimer's disease (immunoglobulin, IVIG) are among the most-awaited in 2013. With almost 45% of its sales stemming from IVIG, Grifols is likely to be directly affected by Baxter's results. In view of the low probability of success in Alzheimer's, we have not factored this opportunity into our estimates. However, a success could add a further 12-16% to our fair value in the short term. Any negative news would provide an attractive entry point for playing fundamentals and the investor day on 30th-31st May. 

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