Following FY publications of the three European IVD players (bioMérieux, Qiagen, DiaSorin), we come back to the main trends in the sector entering 2012. We believe that this year will be a transitional one, where the IVD sector will have to adapt to a new normative growth. In this context, we consider menu acquisitions as pivotal, as well as the companies’ abilities to increase their installed base to secure existing clients, gain new ones and leverage their menus. 2012 will see continuous expansion of new instruments for our three players which could be key for future growth. Finally, we look at the current situation in the Illumina/Roche discussions as well as the prospects of sequencing.
One of the main lessons of statements issued by IVD companies is that visibility over the next 6-12 months is low. As a result, guidance for organic growth is flat to mid-single digit. As we believe profitability will be under scrutiny in the coming quarters, we compare main operating expenses and margins to underline major differences between the three European IVD players.
In this transitional year, we look closely at the installed bases, with the launch of VIDAS new for bioMérieux and the continuous deployment of QiaSymphony for Qiagen and Liaison XL for DiaSorin. Given the unexciting prospects in terms of organic growth, we believe that IVD companies will find leverage in targeted menu acquisitions.
2012 and particularly the first half will be challenging for IVD players. In a mid-term prospective, we are buyers of DiaSorin and looking for a better entry point on Qiagen. As for bioMérieux, the key will be profitability over the next few years.
Roche’s bid for Illumina is still on the table whereas the latter’s board continues to believe it is undervalued. Through this opportunity, we explore the potential of sequencing in IVD.