GDF Suez: A poor Q1, as expected; FY guidance confirmedBUY-Top Picks, Fair Value EUR23 (+18%)
GDF Suez posted poor Q1 metrics as expected with sales and EBITDA affected by lower commodity prices and nuclear outages in Belgium. EBITDA came in 3.9% short of our estimates at EUR3.557m, down 10.4 YoY (-13% LfL) when we expected -6.7%. Most of underperformance came from the Belgian nuclear impact and from a poor cost-cutting reduction plan contribution. Despite uncertainties on Brazil and Belgium, management confirmed its 2015 targets and reiterated its intention to distribute a minimum of EUR1 per share dividend, in any circumstance. FX impact should act as a stronger tailwind than first expected, explaining part of the CEO’s confidence for reaching the 2015 targets. Buy, FV unchanged at EUR23. GDF Suez is still in our Q2 Top picks list.