Novo Nordisk: AWARD-6 is out with no surprises: and now ?

BUY, Fair Value DKK257 vs. DKK245 (-2%)

News published on February Wednesday 26, 2014
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Yesterday Lilly reported that headline results for the AWARD-6 comparative phase III trial between its once-weekly GLP1 dulaglutide and Novo’s once-daily liraglutide (Victoza) had met its primary endpoint, i.e. demonstrated non-inferiority in terms of HbA1c reduction after 26 weeks. This is what Novo-Nordisk itself anticipated during its recent Investors Day while also suggesting that dulaglutide may be weaker on weight loss and high blood pressure. But here Lilly is quiet. All in all, it looks like dulaglutide might be the best-in-class weekly GLP1 but not tremenduously dangerous for Victoza when all parameters are considered. Then, looking beyond that, the share price is not close to our FV: so what should we do then? Although some profit-taking could be envisaged, we do not see major risks on the downside in the short term for the stock and would therefore buy on any weakness.

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