Novo Nordisk : Are phase III data good enough for liraglutide to be successful in obesity?
Fair Value DKK980 vs. DKK925 (+1%)
Initial phase III data from the SCALE Obesity and PreDiabetes study were presented yesterday. Headlines suggest efficacy data in line with phase II, which is not so bad and comparable to what Qnexa showed before being approved. As such, we consider liraglutide is approvable from an efficacy standpoint although placebo-adjusted weight loss after 56 weeks was “only” 5.4% on average. As far as safety is concerned, details are limited thereby making it difficult to form an opinion on a net benefit-risk balance. Since the results are not clear-cut, room for interpretation and dreams way beyond the facts is wide. Although the stock should react positively, we are maintaining our Neutral rating. Our FV has been adjusted for our new risk-free rate.
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