Carrefour: Q3 2015/rather impressive set of figures ahead but some factors to watch (China notably)BUY-Top Picks, Fair Value EUR31 (+10%)
In Q3 2015, we expect Carrefour to reach a +2.7% LFL sales growth excl. fuel and calendar (vs +1.7% in Q2), underpinned by: 1/ a sequential improvement in France (+1.5% vs. +0.9% in Q2 15); 2/ resilient momentum in LatAm (+11.0% vs +10.7% in Q2 15); and 3/ impressive momentum in Western Europe (+2.9% LFL vs -0.4% in Q2 15). In terms of the risks, following a long series of poor LFLs, we will keep a close eye on China (-12% LFL e) where profitability could be under pressure, we believe. As far as Brazil is concerned, In line with recent comments by the CFO, we remain cautious on credit risk caused, notably, by revolving credits.
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