Carrefour: let us not deceive ourselves, Q2 is unikely to reassure
BUY, Fair Value EUR30 (+34%)
Carrefour’s statement (July 28th), following that of Casino, is likely to reflect a mitigated consumption environment both in France and Europe. Carrefour has been suffering a decline in market share at its French hypermarchés (momentum at which remains key to the equity story…) for a while now (-40 bp in P06), meaning the group could be somewhat under pressure during this publication. Going forward, we believe the post-summer promotions compaign in France (which was not particularly successful in 2015) will be key for reassuring on Carrefour’s ability to compete with Leclerc.
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