Carrefour postview: concerns on China and financial services but guidance maintainedBUY, Fair Value EUR31 (+7%)
Management feels comfortable with the current level of Consensus (underlying EBIT at EUR2.45bn). In the end, despite forex headwinds and contrary to Casino, Carrefour was able to keep a relatively stable guidance throughout the year until the moment when the BRL’s depreciation was so obvious, that the initial target (EUR2.5bn) turned out to be rather difficult to maintain. In terms of risks, we have been saying for a while that: 1/ for as long as China makes money, it remains a secondary issue (~3/5%e of earnings); but the day it starts losing money, it could become a question mark. Indeed, following a series of hugely negative LFLs, we are not certain the retailer is still in positive territory. This concern accompanies those regarding 2/ financial services in Brazil. Despite these potential headwinds, if management believes the current level of consensus is reasonable, it might suggest that the operating leverage in Western Europe is hugely consistent.
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