Hugo Boss: Reassuring Q4 organic growth at the expense of margins

NEUTRAL, Fair Value EUR103 vs. EUR107 (+42%)
News published on January Monday 18, 2016
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Last Friday Hugo Boss announced its preliminary FY15 results ahead of schedule. Investors preferred to see the glass half full (i.e. Q4 FX-n growth of 5% vs. BG and CS at ~3%) instead of retaining the margin miss (Q4 adj. EBITDA of EUR171 => ~8% below BG ests). Hugo Boss posted reassuring top line trends thanks to a robust performance in Europe (+10% FX-n), helped by more promotions though, while Americas and Asia-Pacific were less weak than in Q3. Following Burberry’s trading statement last Thursday, this publication also shows that fears about the mild winter and travel cancellations were somewhat over-exagerrated. Ahead of the FY16 outlook which should be delivered on 10th  March, we have notched down our FY16-17 adj. EBITDA assumptions by 3% on average, leading to our FV of EUR103 vs. EUR107.

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