Luxottica: FY15 adj. op income 1.5% short of our expectations but a reassuring FY16-18 outlook!

BUY, Fair Value EUR65 (+21%)
News published on March Wednesday 2, 2016
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Luxottica announced its 2015 results yesterday evening after releasing 2015 sales on 29th January (adj.: EUR9.011bn, +5.5% FX-n adjusted). 2015 adj. EBIT rose 22.5% to EUR1.443bn, 1.5% short of our EUR1.465bn forecast (no CS) and representing a 70bp-margin improvement to 16%. Ahead of today’s Investor Day, the 2016-18 outlook is quite reassuring and consistent with our assumptions: sales are expected to grow 5-6% FX-n in 2016 (BG: +6%e) and mid to high single-digit over 2017-18. The op income target is a bit better than we expected as the group is guiding for a rise of “at least 1.5x sales” over 2016-18 vs. the previous rule-of-thumb of 2x sales, which has been reiterated for six consecutive years. Naturally, all eyes will be on the ID today as we hope LUX will provide more details about this “multi-year plan” and on the future governance structure (+ succession plan). Buy recommendation and FV of EUR65 confirmed.

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