Roche: APHINITY – it is worth taking the residual risk
BUY, Fair Value CHF293 (+19%)
Ahead of our Oncology Day, Roche’s management was available for meetings and at the heart of them was the APHINITY phase III trial that the company itself describes as game-changing. Whether it delivers positive results or not, the profile of Roche will be significantly and profoundly modified at the turn of the decade. The difference can be as high as CHF5-6bn in revenues and 80%-90% of that is profit. This would also be a major defense against biosimilars trastuzumab, on top of the sc form. Beyond oncology, Roche mainly focused its presentation on ocrelizumab and ACE910. Although the stock is unlikely to perform prior to APHINITY results, we see the benefit-risk profile as favourable.
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