Tod's Group: Q1 below expectations with 12% same store sales decline. Lack of visibility on ST.
SELL vs. NEUTRAL, Fair Value EUR60 vs. EUR78 (-2%)
Q1 sales stood at EUR250m vs consensus at EUR257m, down 3.1%. Organically, sales declined 4% (consensus:-1.5%), following +5.9% in Q4 2015. The Q1 figures highlighted a very poor performance in the Americas and in Greater China. More importantly, same store sales were down 12% in Q1. Consequently, we have lowered our 2016 EBIT by 10% and adjusted our FV from EUR78 to EUR60. Given low visibility for coming quarters, some questions on strategy and a disappointing Q1, we adopt an even more cautious view on the stock with a SELL recommendation versus NEUTRAL previously.
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