PARIS | 24th March 2025 – BG IRIS, Bryan Garnier’s research platform, is pleased to release The Next Launch Window, an in-depth analysis of the changing landscape of space launches and satellite communications.

New super-heavy-lift rockets are set to transform the economics of space travel. These powerful vehicles could accelerate the rise of large satellite constellations, making them even more dominant in satellite communications. Meanwhile, in Europe, a new generation of space start-ups is challenging the established players. A major shift is underway:

• The launch market is splitting into two segments: large super-heavy-lift rockets for massive deployments and smaller, flexible launchers for specialised and national security missions.
• Europe is witnessing a new space race, with next-generation launchers in development and front-runners like Isar Aerospace, MaiaSpace, Orbex, PLD Space, and RFA nearing their maiden flights.
• Medium launch vehicles stand out as the “Goldilocks” option, serving a large market while avoiding direct competition with SpaceX and Blue Origin.

At the same time, the rapid expansion of mega-constellations is reshaping the competitive landscape for satellite operators. The unprecedented launch capacity of next-generation rockets could further strengthen the dominance of major players. However, shifting defence priorities in the U.S. and Europe may open new opportunities for incumbent satellite providers. As European governments focus on secure, sovereign satellite networks, initiatives could gain traction, positioning regional operators as strategic alternatives to the dominant global constellations.

To learn more about these industry trends and what they mean for the future of satellite communications and space launches, download the industry brief.