Innovations for better health

The EUR 105bn optical and eyewear industry is driven by technology and demographics. Between 2020 and 2050, the prevalence of presbyopia (age-related eye change) will double to affect over 4.1bn people (40% of the global population) as the population ages. At the same time, myopia prevalence will reach epidemic levels, with half of the world’s population (4.7bn people) affected by 2050 because of indoor lifestyles and prolonged exposure to screens. We see innovation being gradually rebalanced between correction and protection, with lenses designed to slow myopia progression in children or blue-light glasses to block the harmful blue light emitted from electronic devices. In our view, the largest wave of innovation is now in retail transformation, as the digitalization of the customer journey progresses rapidly. This is boosted by the introduction of digital tools such as online eye exams, virtual try-ons and 3D printing, which improve the purchase experience and make offline-online interactions more fluid.

Our first topic is antibody drug conjugates (ADCs), a new approach to treating cancer that recently resulted in multiple business development opportunities and M&A transactions aimed at acquiring competences and skills in the field. If the number of ADCs approved and launched is increasing, we are only at the beginning of what could be a revolution, with the ultimate goal being to partially replace chemotherapy in therapeutic cocktails. This would be transformative for medical practice and patients and could create a sizeable market in which some companies are already playing
for first-mover advantage. The first winners in this race can already be identified.

Located upstream of the value chain, ingredients companies provide their clients with the essential elements needed to create their products, and can also help them design their
end products. The worldwide ingredients market can be valued at around EUR 440bn is steadily growing (+4% per year on average). Since the early 2000s, the ingredients industry has undergone real consolidation, driven by the aim of small players to find reliable partners with access to capital markets, brand exposure and geographical reach. We see clean labelling and plant proteins as the main growth drivers for the industry. Clean labelling meets consumer demand for natural products and requires adaptation by major groups, whether food or HPC giants. And a number of ingredients groups have strengthened their exposure to plant proteins via acquisitions. This segment is very dynamic, posting double-digit growth rates on a global level. Three different sources
of proteins exist: animal proteins (including insects, an industry which is in its infancy and we believe has significant sources of growth and optimization in biological and operational terms); plant proteins; and alternative proteins such as micro-algae and artificial meat.

Demographic challenges (the number of people aged 80+ is expected to more than double by 2070 in Europe), budgetary constraints and widespread dissatisfaction among professionals and users of elderly care are all creating strong pressure for change. Most people prefer to stay at home rather than in a specialized unit, and home care costs less. Technology will play a leading role in this transformation: it has the potential to make home care integrated and all-encompassing, with doctors, hospitals, pharmacies, seniors and relatives all connected to IT platforms. Care can be monitored continuously and delivered faster and more cheaply, in a safe environment. Going forward, we expect the home to be the place where care is provided for the longest period of time, with technology allowing for remote delivery and monitoring. Retirement homes will cater to the very elderly for a relatively short period of time. The same logic probably applies to rehabilitation clinics. Patients will only stay for a few days before heading back to their connected home. We are seeing an acceleration of the shift in demand away from traditional models to a new focus on home care.